SPECIAL: Coronavirus/COVID-19 Fact Sheet

Although this is an unusual post for this site — both in timing and content — I felt information on the Coronavirus/COVID-19 (i.e., its contagiousness, threat, precautionary measures, etc.) should be accessible to people. Because I couldn’t find any centralized information on it, though, I took the time to research and source the following facts about it as we know them now.

Getting at “truth” is a big component of the content on this site, so hopefully the information you read here can provide you with a better scope of the virus and its potential fallout. The following information will need to be updated as scientists and researchers learn more, but for now, here is the current state of the knowledge on the virus causing the pandemic:

CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 FACT SHEET
March 19, 2020

CONTAGIOUSNESS
- Everyone can contract the disease, young and old. No one is immune.
  - Previously, there was some evidence that different age groups might be more or less susceptible; however, it appears all ages can contract and spread it — even if some age groups (e.g., the young) appear less sympotmatic.
- Each infected person is likely to infect at least 2.5 others (for comparison, those with the seasonal flu infect about 1.3 other people)
- People are most contagious when they’re exhibiting symptoms
  - Nonetheless, it can also spread when people are asymptomatic; however, this form of transmission may be less common
  - It can also be contracted by touching contaminated surfaces/objects and then touching one’s face; though, this form of transmission may be less common
- The virus is transmitted through two primary ways:
  - Person-to-person contact (i.e., within 6 feet of each other)
  - Through respiratory droplets (i.e., when people sneeze or cough) – This means that the tiny droplets remaining in the air for up to 3 hours after the infected person leaves that space can still infect people

SIGNS OF SICKNESS
- Symptoms emerge 2-14 days after exposure
- Primary symptoms typically include: a fever, cough, shortness of breath
  - Other symptoms: sluggishness, chills, a sore throat, and/or an achy body
  - If you feel a persistent pain or pressure in your chest or have difficulty breathing, you should seek emergency medical help immediately

THREAT TO PERSONAL HEALTH
- About 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection (requiring oxygen), and 5% are critical infections (requiring ventilation)
  - In the severe conditions, the virus causes fluids to build up in the small air sacs of the lungs, which restrict how much air the lungs can take in. Consequently, this can reduce the oxygen supply to vital organs, which can cause death (i.e., acute respiratory distress syndrome; ARDS)
- Currently, the morality rate of this disease is between .7-3.4% (estimates are hard to determine in the early stages of an outbreak; however, research now suggests that COVID-19 is 20x more dangerous than the seasonal flu).
  - Based on current projections, it’s expected that the coronavirus may kill between 200,000 and 2.2 million U.S. Americans – depending on the measures people and the U.S. government take to quell the outbreak
  - Relatedly, even for those it doesn’t kill, it’s possible that between 2.4 million and 21 million U.S. Americans would require hospitalization – when the US only has 925K staffed hospital beds.
- People over the age of 60 are the most susceptible to the more severe complications:
  - Older people are twice as likely to have a serious illness result from infection
  - Former FDA leader: “Everyone over 60 should become a hermit for a month”
  - Current U.S. CDC: “older people should stay at home as much as possible”
- People with chronic illnesses are much more susceptible to severe consequences of COVID-19.

THREAT TO NATIONAL HEALTH
- Experts anticipate anywhere from 20-50% of the US population will be infected
- Unlike other diseases – where that infection rate is spread out over time – we’re experiencing a pandemic, where the virus is spreading so fast that everyone is getting sick near simultaneously
- Although the fatality rate is somewhat “low,” this is because we are able to treat patients with more severe forms of the illness. Left untreated, death rates will climb
- For 10-20% of all infected, they will need hospitalization
  - The U.S. has about 45,000 ICU beds. In a “moderate” outbreak (which is about the best we can ask for now), about 200K Americans would need one
  - This very issue of over-taxed hospitals is happening in Italy right now. Their infection rate is so high that doctors are literally deciding who lives and who dies; they simply don’t have enough equipment or personnel to treat the sick

WHAT CAN YOU DO?
- First, we CAN make a difference. What is important now is not to stop the pandemic – the virus is going to spread on its own – but we can SLOW IT
  - The concern right now is about not having enough resources to treat the massive influx of sick people. Thus, if we can slow the spread of the disease, we can make sure the maximal number of people get treatment while gaining time to come up with a vaccine
  - South Korea and Japan have done an exemplar job at this already and have been estimated to save thousands of lives by their extreme measures to reduce the speed at which the disease spreads
- If you think you might be sick, first CALL the hospital and explain your symptoms. Only go in if they recommend that should you come in
- Socially distance yourself from others – this is probably the most proven tactic
  - In general, try to avoid public activities such as traveling by airplane, going to movie theaters, attending family events, shopping at crowded malls, and going to religious services
  - Try to maintain 6 feet from others when out in public
  - If you have to do a socially congested activity (e.g., shop), try to do it late at night or early in the morning when fewer people are around
- Wash your hands regularly – this really does help slow the spread of disease!
- Wipe down objects or surfaces touched regularly
- Avoid touching your face
- Cough/sneeze into a tissue – and throw it away after that. Use your elbow otherwise